A few days ago, the UN Security Council discussed
Iran’s violation of UN Resolution 2231/2015, in which the nuclear agreement
between Iran and the P5+1 group was endorsed. Iran is sending drones to Russia
to be used in the latter’s war against Ukraine and its Western allies, and it
has sent its experts to the Crimea to train the Russians on the use of these
drones.
This Iranian position means a clear bias towards the Russians in their war against Ukraine, and this entails on them many responsibilities internationally and in the West.
Iran’s siding with the Russians in their war against Ukraine may give an indication of the behavior or role of a strategic ally, in addition to being a form of mutual benefit. The Iranians are providing Russia with their drones, while at the same time filling the vacuum created by the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria.
By this practice, Iran believes that it is draining the West in Ukraine, which, in return, will push the West to try to neutralize Iran from this war in exchange for US and European concessions regarding its nuclear program, and to accept the formula that suits it to be able to manufacture its atomic bomb.
The demonstrations taking place in Iran against the regime of the so-called “Almurshed” ie “ The Guide” is a popular uprising that wants liberation from an authoritarian regime primarily, and it wants to invest oil and other resources for comprehensive national development, and not to export “political Shiism” through sectarian arms in neighboring countries. Therefore, the West found in the Iranian people’s uprising a valuable opportunity to destabilize this regime, by supporting demonstrations, imposing sanctions on human rights violators, and providing the revolting forces in Iran with many services and assistance, such as providing satellite Internet service, which makes the Iranian regime unable to prevent the flow of information related to the uprising internally and internationally.
Iran, which is trading its drones with the
Russians, and in return wants to fill the Russian vacuum in Syria, is going to
broader confrontations with the Hebrew state, by transferring advanced military
technology to Syria for manufacturing and storage, in which Israel finds a
serious threat to it.
This Iranian threat is unacceptable to Israel, which is why it launches its raids on Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah sites in Syria, and on all sites belonging to the Assad regime, which stores or sponsors the manufacture of drones and weapons in its military headquarters.
The Iranian threat cannot be accepted by Israel, and for this reason, it is trying to use its advanced technology to support the Zelensky government in Kyiv. This technology will stand in the way of Iran’s drones that are used in the war against Ukraine. But this collides with the Russian warning to avoid doing so, otherwise Israel will face dire consequences and repercussions, with it being blacklisted as an enemy of Russia, according to Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian National Security Council, and this is what moves the military confrontation in its various forms between Iran & Israel and, Israel & Russia into a new arena which is Ukraine.
The West, particularly the United States of America, which sees with its own eyes Iran’s bias in favor of the Russians in the ongoing war in Ukraine, is suspicious of this bias, and includes it in the possibilities of formation of a new international alliance, including China, Russia, Iran and other countries close to their policies, which threatens the military, political and economic balance Existing at the global level.
That is why the United States cannot continue to cajole Iran into negotiating over its nuclear program, and make concessions to it in this negotiation, which would destabilize the Middle East region and threaten American interests and presence in it.
The United States of America is ought to reconsider its policies drawn up by Brett McGurk, which alienated the traditional allies of the United States to the advantages of Iran and the Kurdistan Workers Party, which are classified as terrorist entities. And it is ought to build trusty relations with these alliances, specifically Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. Presence of contradictions between the states and its traditional allies, appears to be an actual incentive for Iran aligning with China, Russia and their allies.
That is why US policy must be corrected, and Brett McGurk removed from his position, because confronting Russia and China needs America’s traditional allies to stand by it to avoid their move to the other side of the conflict. Mr. Brett McGurk is the enemy of the closer alliance of the United States with its traditional allies, especially Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Therefore, he must be removed and replaced with a charismatic figure capable of strengthening such relations, and he is far from achieving them.
We can conclude from the message of sending Iranian drones to support Russia’s war on Ukraine, that Mohammed bin Salman was right to take a negative stance against the Biden administration, by not responding to pumping more oil, to weaken the latter’s position, which aims to satisfy the Iranians in the nuclear negotiations with them at the expense of Saudi Arabia and America’s allies in the region, which ultimately strengthens the Iranian influence. These drones sent a message of support for the position of Mohammed bin Salman, which emphasizes the danger of the Iranian regime and its intentions against America, Ukraine, the West, Saudi Arabia, the region, and indeed the entire world. It seems that these rallies awakened Biden from dreams of reaching a nuclear agreement with such a terrorist regime that destabilizes international security. The question now is whether the Biden administration, headed by Brett McGurk, will wake up, correct its mistakes, and restore its close alliance with Saudi Arabia?.
Therefore, it can be said that Iran, which started the demonstrations by exhausting its political authority, will find it difficult to go further and further in managing its political and military hegemony in neighboring countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, and this should be noted by Western policy in general, which makes Iran in the same position that found the regime Al-Asadi himself is in it, as he brutally suppresses peaceful demonstrations calling for freedoms, dignity and the rule of law, as Iran, through its killing Qassem Soleimani, contributed to the use of excessive violence and human rights violations against peaceful civilian demonstrators.
Therefore, it can be said that Iran, which demonstrations started to exhaust its political authority, will find it difficult to go further and further in managing its political and military hegemony in neighboring countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, which should be noted by Western policy in general. This makes Iran in the same position that Assad regime found himself in, as he brutally suppressed peaceful demonstrations that were calling for freedoms, dignity and the rule of law, when Iranian regime, through its terrorist leader Qassem Soleimani, contributed to the use of excessive violence and human rights violations against peaceful civilian demonstrators.
The United States, along with Western Europe, are ought to be involved in real investment in the demonstrations in Iran, which, if it does not overthrow the mullahs’ regime, will weaken it and force it to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, and the necessity of its military and political withdrawal from the countries of the region.
Considering that the “Almurshed” ie “ The Guide” regime wants to justify its excessive repression against its people, it claimed that ISIS moved to their country and carried out bombings in religious centers. This statement reveals that what happened is part of a scenario implemented by the mullahs’ regime to justify its severe suppression of the demonstrators and the uprising of the Iranian people, as this regime believes that world are unaware of Iran’s role in creating the so-called “ISIS”.
Iran is in great trouble, and with the intensification of its crisis with the international community and its people, it is still playing the game of escape ahead, and the question is how long this will continue.